The Great European Sell-Off Has Begun

Blood in the streets today.  LCH Clearnet raised the margin requirements for Italian bonds due in seven-to-10 years to 11.65% vs. 6.65% on October 7.   Italian 10-year bonds at 7.4%!  Rick Santelli said the yield could rise to 10% within a week.  Implausible?  Well, he called the US 10-year Treasury yield going under 2%, so I wouldn't call his call that farfetched.  This is a dream turned into a nightmare for BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole.

The first domino that sets off the Great European Sell-Off has fallen. We were looking for a catalyst, and I think we've found IT.

Who will step in and buy the Italian bonds?  ECB?  IMF?  The US???!!!  The US has its own problems with the supercommittee gridlock  over $1.2 trillion in proposed spending cuts and revenue increases over the next 10 years.

We are now past the point of no return.  The damage has already been done.  More selling likely to come...

We have now failed the 200 day moving average (SPX 1275)!

The SPX chart pattern looks eerily similar to May 2008, when we failed the 200 day moving average.  After that failure, the market crashed from 1425 to its low of 666, a ~53% plunge in 10 months.

Seems like a big unimaginable drop, but it has happened, so it's possible we could get a repeat.  This time, it's Sovereigns, so it's possible that it could get even worse...